Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
