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Just two months in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause for the team's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

This weekend, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. As the England international curled home his second to restore his side's advantage, the boss tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, are somehow only three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Title Contenders?

This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been entirely convincing this season, even as the positive results have stacked up.

According to Opta, twice all season has the team registered an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the tight outcomes are going in their favour.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach seems to be to trade blows with rivals before hoping their talisman to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more versus the Red Devils.

His opener stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.

Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures could still return to peak condition.

• The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
• The winger may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
• The defensive duo will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.

Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.

Relishing the Unlikely

But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a vital Three Lions star.

The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it appears so improbable. As the hero stood in front of the home supporters after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.