Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
